The Hater

Here are a few players that I hate so far this year:

Rickie Weeks: I must have been smoking crack in my Weeks projection. The dude needs to be in the minor leagues right now. Granted, his average will come up and his BABIP is way too low, which portends good things, but last week I couldn't take it anymore and have been using a combination of Freddy Sanchez and Aki Iwamura (ugh) in an attempt to undo some of the damage Weeks has done to my batting average.

Ron Washington: I drafted CJ Wilson in all of my leagues this year. Washington loves to use Wilson in non-save situations even though he always gives up between 2 and 4 runs. Yesterday Washington used Wilson for the third day in a four days (all non-save situations). Now he's overworking his closer so that he can feel safe in the 9th with a 5 run lead? Of course, if CJ didn't blow it every time I wouldn't care.

Erik Bedard: Bedard finally got bombed yesterday. I've watched most of his starts and he has hardly looked overpowering. Though his numbers were stellar leading up to yesterday's 6 ER, 2 inning outing, he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball in terms of batting average on balls in play, and he's just an a-hole in general. He should get better if he's not injured, but still, hate him.

Dice-K: He's been great so far, but all of those walks are going to catch up to him soon. His constant nibbling and refusal to go after hitters late in counts is also causing him to run up high pitch counts, which means a finish anywhere near 20 wins is extremely unlikely. Sell.

Two Up: Ervin Santana and Justin Duchscherer

Ervin Santana looks like the real deal. I'm still a little nervous to start him on the road, but he's been great so far and is still young enough that a breakout to frontline starter status isn't out of the question. He's got a 2.48 ERA through 6 starts. I only drafted him for his home starts, but I'm glad I did since he was a last rounder in all of my leagues.

Another starter that I like at least for the first half is Justin Duchscherer. He was awful last year in 17 games of relief but was hurt. He's always had excellent control and if he can keep his walk-rate at or near the levels he did as a reliever he could really surprise this year. He's got a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP after two starts. I say go ahead and start him tomorrow against the Angels.

Update: 5x5 Punting HR/RBI Strategy

Before the season started I talked about a draft I did where I had decided to punt HR and RBI, while trying to win R, AVG, SB, W, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP outright. You can read about the strategy and see the team here, but long story short it is a 16 team 5x5 league with a high 1500 innings cap and a 1000 inning minimum. A few readers took issue with my team; this guy even called it "the worst fantasy baseball team ever" on his blog. Well, so far so good for the worst team ever. As of today I'm in first place with the following point breakdown:

R: 10
HR: 1
RBI: 4
SB: 16
AVG: 8.5
W: 16
SV: 16
K: 16
ERA: 16
WHIP: 16

Now, the RBI will come down to a 1 soon, but I have to think that Ichiro will pick up his .250 AVG, and that I'll easily make up those 3 points there, hopefully more. Pitching-wise my team has been flat-out dominant with a 2.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 205 innings. I traded Francisco Liriano for George Sherill, which has worked out pretty well, and I'm now carrying 5 closers in a 16 team league. Not bad.

Death of the Giants Strategy

Since the start of the season I've been spot-starting waiver-wire pitchers against the San Francisco Giants. After watching Braden Looper get absolutely destroyed by the weak-hitting Giants in the 3rd inning of today's game, I've declared this strategy a failure. Up to this point I'd had starts from Germano and Wolf in San Diego, Kyle Lohse and then Wellemeyer twice. All of this led to 31 innings, 22 Ks, 2 wins, 2.87 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP. Those are pretty great numbers from a bunch of waiver-wire scrubs. Enter Braden Looper. Looper is a piece of garbage. He came out for the 3rd inning and couldn't throw anything below the letters. Sure enough, the anemic Giants offense feasted on him with a series of shots back up the middle. The new total numbers for this strategy: 4.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP. Not terrible, but not great. He's also going to come back out with the 4th inning, so the pain will probably continue. This just goes to show, even triple-A quality hitters can tee off on craptastic pitchers like Joel Pineiro and the aforementioned Looper. I hate you, Braden Looper.

Giants Watch - April 12th

Still going strong with the spot-starters against the Giants. Kyle Lohse pitched an ugly game but ended up with the win. Todd Wellemeyer was rolling until he allowed a dinger to Matt Cain, and actually allowed 5 runs but since there was a dropped-ball error with two outs only one of them was earned. I have also picked up Anthony Reyes for the today and tomorrow's games against the Giants, since Lincecum will be pitching and I figure it comes down to the bullpens. I'll still be starting Pineiro in all of my leagues, even though the weather and the Giants offense have been heating up, which is a little scary. Pineiro did pitch well in his AAA game last week. The total numbers for the spot start vs. Giants strategy are at the bottom of this post; looking pretty good (especially the ERA and WHIP), though a few more wins would be nice.

Randy Wolf: 6 IP, 4Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Justin Germano: 7 IP, 3Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP

Kyle Lohse: 5.1 IP, 1 Win, 2 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.69 WHIP

Todd Wellemeyer: 6 IP, 7 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Next up: Joel Pineiro, Wellemeyer again, Pineiro again

Total so far: 24.1 IP, 1 Wins, 16 Ks, 1.84 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Update: Albert Pujols will not play tomorrow, and that combined with Tim Lincecum starting for the Giants means I won't be starting Pineiro in mixed leagues, but will be in my deep 16-team league. Anthony Reyes got the save today. I won't count him as part of these spot starts, but he makes a good play for tomorrow and the rest of the SF-Stl series next week.

Giants Watch - April 10th

Justin Germano fought a small strike zone from the home plate umpire and a strong performance by Jonathan Sanchez but finished with a very solid line, despite not picking up the win. Sanchez is a strike-out machine, by the way, and if he can ever improve his control and limit the walks, he's going to be very good. He's got 18 Ks through his first 10 innings, and his stuff looked nasty all night but he walks too many and continues to run up high pitch counts early on. Anyway, Germano didn't allow a run and struck out three. He could have gone another inning or two but was pulled for a pinch hitter in the top of the 8th. The Padres didn't give him any run support, in part due to an excellent throw from left field by Fred Lewis that nailed Jim Edmonds at home plate. Anyway, the strategy is off to a very successful start. Next up: Kyle Lohse on April 11th. I'd normally never start Kyle Lohse, ever, but against Barry "84 mph" Zito and the Giants, I'll make an exception in all of my leagues.

Randy Wolf: 6 IP, 4Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Justin Germano: 7 IP, 3Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP

Kyle Lohse

Todd Wellemeyer

Brad Thomson (might be replaced by Pineiro)

Total so far: 13 IP, 0 Wins, 7 Ks, 1.38 ERA, 0.76 WHIP

Three Up, Three Down

Three Up:

Zack Greinke: Greinke looks very good so far, having completely shut down Detroit and the Yankees in his first two starts to the tune of one run in fifteen innings. He was great in the bullpen last year, and was great when he became a starter again in the second half. He's primed for his best season yet, with a Sub-4.00 ERA and a sub 1.25 WHIP very very likely. The breakout is here.

Ben Sheets: Sheets looks unhittable so far. Granted, his complete game shutout came against the Giants, but his curve was on and was dominant in his first start against the Cubs. Forget the injury worries, he's looking like a top-5 starter in mixed leagues, and with the Brewers' lineup he should win 15-18 games for the first time in his career.

Pat Burrell: Another contract year player, Burrell has been great so far with 3 dingers, 9 RBI and a .385 average. The average will come down, but I like Burrell for 30+ homers and 120 RBI this year.

also up: Tim Lincecum, Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Ryan Braun

Three Down:

Jose Reyes: Reyes looks terrible so far, has only one walk on the season, and most of all has not stolen a base. He'll rebound, but it is discouraging to those of us that built our teams around him to see him struggle so badly out of the gates, especially because he struggled so badly in the second half last year. The Mets lame lineup makes 120+ runs unlikely.

Mark Teixeira: I love Tex this year, but you should not be starting him right now (.147 AVG as I write this). He's a notoriously slow starter, and with cheap 1B options like Nick Johnson and Billy Butler available in so many leagues, Teixeira needs to be benched in all mixed leagues until April is over. Great trade target around that time as well.

Rickie Weeks: Weeks is a K machine, and though I still believe he's in for a 20-20 season, his average looks like it will stay very low. He has consistently worked from behind in the count so far and will have more than his share of 0 for 4 and 1 for 5 games.

also down: Erik Bedard, Detroit Tigers, SF Giants